Data-Heavy Morning to Direct Markets

This morning we have a few pieces of employment data from the UK. The data is expected to show that the average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to November, are expected to rise by 3.1%, while ex-bonuses, the wages are also seen rising by 3.4% in the reported period. The number of people seeking jobless benefits are likely to increase by 24.5k in December vs. +28.8k seen last. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8% during the period.

If we do see positive employment data from the UK we could see GBPUSD comfortably above the 1.30 handle; it is currently trading just below. On GBPEUR the pair is trading just above the 1.17 handle. Sterling has traded in a fairly tight range against both the Dollar and the Euro with a downward trend. This has been down to a slew of poor data from the UK in the form of GDP, retail sales and inflation over the past two weeks. Should we see employment figures out softer we could see Sterling move sharply lower as it would fuel anticipations of a rate cut from the Bank of England at the end of the month.

Across the channel we have Eurozone and German Zew data which is a good measure of economic sentiment. EURUSD is currently trading back below 1.11 and is likely to need positive numbers to break through the resilient level of 1.11. A poor figure could force the Euro to continue to weaken against the dollar, especially given a trade deal between the US and China gave the dollar a boost against a basket of currencies.

GBPUSD - 1.2995

GBPEUR - 1.1722

EURUSD -  1.1086

The figures are based on the live mid-market rate, correct as of 08:30 GMT on 21/01/2020, and are provided for indicative purposes only. Live mid-market rates are not available to consumers and are for informational purposes only. The rates we quote for money transfer can be selected via the page on our website ‘Live Money Transfer rates’.

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