2024: The Year of Elections

2024 will see over 60 countries head to the polls. The outcome of these elections has the potential to impact the value of a majority of the world’s top currencies and the stability of the FX market.

Xe Corporate

14 febbraio 2024 — 5 min read

Reported by The Economist to be the biggest election year in history, 2024 will see over 60 countries – collectively representing over half of the world’s population – head to the polls. Included are eight of the ten most populous nations in the world.

Not only is this a record-breaking number of elections held within a single year, but many of these elections have been defined as “high stakes”. As Merill Lynch puts it, “Rarely has the geopolitical calendar been so stacked. And rarely have the political stakes been higher[...]”

What’s more, the outcome of these elections has the potential to impact the value of a majority of the world’s top currencies and the stability of the FX market.

Political uncertainty can be one of the key drivers of volatility in a country’s currency value, impacting businesses all around the world. A change in any direction could mean a change in trade and fiscal policies, labor market dynamics, and international relations, which may have far-reaching economic implications for the country whose reigning government has changed, as well as for any country whose currency is closely linked to theirs.

What makes this year’s elections unique, however, is for the first time in known history, we may see the uncertainty that international elections can bring play out on an unprecedented scale.

How exactly the outcome of these elections will shift the geopolitical landscape and define the year ahead for the foreign exchange market is yet to be seen, but we can watch some of the most populous countries’ elections this year and monitor changes as they come.

5 UPCOMING ELECTIONS TO WATCH

1. United States

Alongside substantial elections in the Senate and House, the United States is scheduled to hold its 60th presidential election on the 5th of November 2024 with nearly 160 million Americans registered to vote.

2. India

Between April and May, India will host the world’s largest election. According to the Election Commission of India, over 945 million registered voters – an estimated 65% of India’s entire population – will cast their vote.

3. Mexico

On the 2nd of June, an estimated 96 million registered voters will vote to elect a new president and – for the first time in the country’s history – voters in all 32 states will fill more than 20,000 public positions.

4. European Union

2024 will see the world’s largest transnational election as some 400 million voters across 27 countries will elect 720 members of the European Parliament for five-year terms. Set to take place from the 6th and 9th of June, these parliamentary elections will be the first elections following the U.K.’s departure.

5. UK

The United Kingdom must hold a general election no later than 28th January 2025, anticipating a voter turnout upwards of 3.85 million. However, the government can choose to call an election sooner, and some political analysts have speculated that an election may occur in the second half of 2024.

For a full list of elections scheduled for 2024, see our list below.

MANAGING UNCERTAINTY WITH XE

Running a global business or finance department is challenging enough without the complexities of foreign exchange markets. Our global FX and risk management teams are available to help so you can focus on what really matters, growing your business. They will work with you to identify and quantify the risk to your business, develop a strategy that meets your needs, and implement it. Here are a few of the tools that can help:

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Option contracts

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